Canada’s Increasingly Complex Political Landscape

Author: N. Sava, Megaphone Staff Writer

In the wake of rampant inflation and high unemployment rates, Canada has grown largely disillusioned with Justin Trudeau’s incohesive governance. The former prime minister has been embroiled in multiple scandals over his decade-long tenure. The SNC-Lavalin affair is considered to be the most serious of these transgressions, where Trudeau’s Prime Minister’s Office interfered in the legal process to request leniency for SNC-Lavalin, a large Canadian engineering and construction company responsible for employing thousands of Canadians each year and donating millions to the Liberal Party. A conviction of the corporation, facing prosecution over charges of fraud and bribing foreign governments, could damage Canada’s domestic economy. Trudeau’s perceived abuse of power in this instance is just one example of what some view to be a betrayal of public trust. As a result, Canada’s conservative party has enjoyed a steady rise in popularity, with Pierre Poilievre leading the charge. And so, when Trudeau announced his resignation as Canada’s Prime Minister on January 6, 2025, Poilievre was the clear favorite to win the upcoming national election.

However, the aggressive tactics and declarations of Donald Trump, America’s recently inaugurated president, who has levied significant trade embargos against Canada in order to pressure our neighboring nation into becoming the 51st state, has thrown a wrench in Canada’s relatively-uncomplicated political landscape. In a surprising turn of events, Justin Trudeau’s replacement, Mark Carney, has surged past Poilievre in the most recent polling data from CBC and 338Canada. Carney’s 40.8% support among likely voters edges the Conservative Poilievre by over 3 points. This shift can be explained by the incumbent’s staunch refusal to entertain Trump’s arbitrary demands, capitalizing on swelling national pride that has largely overcome the Liberal vs Conservative divide in Canada. Most recently, Carney has doubled-down on this popular stance: “The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over.” Though Canada’s political climate may seem straightforward, complexities have grown apparent that offer insight into the nation’s future as a self-determining country. 

Unexpectedly, a generational divide has surfaced in Canada, regarding the willingness to surrender national autonomy and become America’s 51st state. While among the older generations patriotism and national allegiance are at an all-time high, surveys have revealed that Canada’s youth embodies a very different attitude. A poll conducted by Ipsos shockingly found that 43% of Canadians ages 18-34 would vote to join America as the 51st state, as opposed to just 17% of people ages 55 and over, under the condition of guaranteed citizenship and conversion of assets into American currency. This data presents a stark contrast and raises questions over Canada’s national sovereignty in the coming years. With Mark Carney likely to retain the position of Prime Minister and fight for Canadian freedom, a growing youth movement open to becoming the 51st state and an American president threatening economic sanctions against its closest allies, US-Canada relations are set to become increasingly complex in years to come.